India’s retaliation in the form
of surgical strike is a watershed moment in India’s foreign policy with
Pakistan. This has multiple far-reaching implications and long term
ramifications not only on our foreign policy, but also as a growing economic
power. Let’s, delve into each one of these aspects and dissect the same.
1. Indian retaliation will now become the
benchmark in future dealings
A clear shift in policy with respect to India’s approach in dealing
with the menace of terrorism emanating from Pakistan’s so-called non-state
actors - The Policy of Offensive Defense.
Despite conducting surgical strikes across terror camps of Naga militants in Myanmar last year, India till date did not consider surgical strikes as a viable option against Pakistan based terror groups, expecting rising escalation. This encouraged Pakistan to continue with such attacks with impunity without the fear of being retaliated. So called India’s “Strategic Restraint” which was basically to do nothing and wait, had boosted their morale to bleed India with their “thousand cuts” policy. The Indian retaliation will now become the benchmark in future dealings. If India doesn’t continue to retaliate in similar fashion against future terrorist adventurism, we will fall weak in the eyes of the terror-bosses and hence need to maintain the onslaught of hitting terror infrastructure hard every time India is attacked – to reinforce the point that there are negative consequences attached in attacking India. There cannot be any half-hearted approach and backing down at this stage. “An eye for an eye” is the motto to be adopted. A lot can be learned from the way Israel has been able to cope with this issue. This is not war-mongering – but leveraging fear to prevent loss of innocent Indian lives for the greater good. It is a shame that India’s military despite being twice the size of Pakistan has been brought to its knees in the past due to poor political will and support. Thankfully, that phase is hopefully a passé.
Despite conducting surgical strikes across terror camps of Naga militants in Myanmar last year, India till date did not consider surgical strikes as a viable option against Pakistan based terror groups, expecting rising escalation. This encouraged Pakistan to continue with such attacks with impunity without the fear of being retaliated. So called India’s “Strategic Restraint” which was basically to do nothing and wait, had boosted their morale to bleed India with their “thousand cuts” policy. The Indian retaliation will now become the benchmark in future dealings. If India doesn’t continue to retaliate in similar fashion against future terrorist adventurism, we will fall weak in the eyes of the terror-bosses and hence need to maintain the onslaught of hitting terror infrastructure hard every time India is attacked – to reinforce the point that there are negative consequences attached in attacking India. There cannot be any half-hearted approach and backing down at this stage. “An eye for an eye” is the motto to be adopted. A lot can be learned from the way Israel has been able to cope with this issue. This is not war-mongering – but leveraging fear to prevent loss of innocent Indian lives for the greater good. It is a shame that India’s military despite being twice the size of Pakistan has been brought to its knees in the past due to poor political will and support. Thankfully, that phase is hopefully a passé.
2. Pakistan’s
nuclear sabre-rattling is a farce and will never engage in a conventional war.
Pakistan’s use of proxy is
primarily because it can never take on India in a conventional war and sustain.
Hence this asymmetric warfare and trying to kill India through thousand cuts.
Bring nukes into the picture and it’s a powerful concoction.
After the surgical strikes, the Indian
side of International Border and LoC have been cleared of civilian population,
expecting a retaliation from Pakistan. The chances are less of engaging into a
full-scale war. The reasons are many, one being Pakistan is still in the mode
of denial that I have discussed in the next point. Also, Pakistan’s army is
tied up in Baluchistan and Zarb-e-Azb operations in Northern Areas. They are
stretched thin to fight out a two pronged war, reducing chances of full blown
war further. Though Pakistan has very little to lose if ever a full-fledged war
arose, still they will not go for a nuclear war with India, primarily because
India’s actions were well-calibrated to localise the issue. Escalating this
localised conflict from LoC to international border across Punjab and
Rajasthan, especially when India is on high alert would be the most foolish
action Pakistan can resort to.
Pakistan understands and also
realises the fact that it can never win against India in the conventional war;
hence designed the Tactical Battlefield Nukes against India’s Cold Start
Doctrine. Pakistan also knows and understands that any use of even battle-field
tactical nukes will warrant a massive barrage of nukes from Indian side
decimating Pakistan completely. Hence, Pakistan’s bluff of nuclear
sabre-rattling has been called. Once, this is out in the open, Pakistan has
nothing up its sleeve of which India has to fear of directly. China, as a
staunch ally of Pakistan brings in a different complexity which I will discuss
in another blog post in this series.
As possible outcomes that I envisage,
Pakistan will act through its proxies. blaming India for the escalation of
attacks without taking responsibilities. It can activate the sleeper cells
across India or attack diplomatic missions in other countries like Kabul,
Afghanistan to spread the message. It can also initiate cross-border firing with
mortar and heavy artillery across LoC and IB to heat up the situation, but
still will not escalate it a full blown war, unless India chooses to. It will
also go crying to US and UN of blaming India instigating a war and shed
crocodile tears of being affected by terrorism itself – as if one expects to
sleep with the cobra without being bitten – such naivety.
3. The
message is loud and clear – time for talks are over
Indian government has openly
acknowledged and announced the fact that Indian Army has conducted cross-border
raids, and has laid it bare in front of the world. The Indian DGMO in his press
briefing, clearly highlighted that, had it not been pre-empted, there were
three dozen terrorists lying in wait to conduct attacks on Indian civilian and
military population like Uri and Pathankot.
Previous such sanctions, remained
covert activities which were hardly announced by Indian Government – which suited
Pakistan so long it’s nefarious activities aren’t impacted and exposed by media
coverage. Indian Army PR and Government must be lauded at the well-articulated
message that has been sent out clearly stating that the main target of the
operations were terrorists and terrorist infrastructure and were not conducted against
the Pakistani Army. The few Pakistani jawans killed in the operation raises
further questions, for Pakistan to answer, as to why these jawans were
colluding with the terrorists at the time when the India’s retaliation took
place.
India has clearly demonstrated
that we will walk the talk when retaliation is concerned.
4. World
is behind India and has hardly condemned Indian Action!
A very important point to note
here is the world reaction. Hardly, any country has condemned India’s
retaliatory strike. This proves how well India has been able to isolate
Pakistan on the diplomatic front; even US has not openly condemned India. This
shows the efficacy of Mr. Modi’s continual reach out to heads of foreign
governments [those who questions his frequent foreign trips], relaying India’s
stance and preparing ground-work for a situation that has now taken place. China’s
reaction has been surprisingly guarded. Partly because, if it condemns, it
contradicts Pakistan’s stance that it was a cross-border firing and nothing
more.
Today, India doesn’t need to
defend its actions and the world stands together as one behind India! A
remarkable shift in attitude towards India since early 2000, I must say. Even
Mr. Tony Blair in an interview with Barkha Dutt, way back in 2010 had
acknowledged that the West should have listened to India more during the
nineties regarding terrorism and how it has now become a huge headache for the
countries that believed themselves reasonably beyond the reach of these Jihadis.
9/11 finally woke them up. Watch the video…
5. Pakistani
Army is no longer Sacrosanct
Pakistani Government and
Media is in a state of denial, no doubt in shock as well; I would prefer to
call it a temporary comatose state. They are in total dis-array, how to respond
to this armed retaliation – simply because, they had taken India’s “Strategic
Restraint” for granted. There have been 5 different press releases on different
lines from Pak Army, Foreign Ministry and other Pakistani government agencies, exposing
the fact that there is a no clear ownership in Pakistan on this issue. India
was always perceived to be a gentle giant, incapable of retaliating in the
fashion it did. Only bravado that India demonstrated according to Pakistan’s
foreign policy makers [I mean Pak Army and ISI] was on the diplomatic table.
Humiliating defeat and surrender of 93,000 Pak Army soldiers in 1971 war is now
a distant memory – one of the largest such PoWs captured ever after WW2.
Acknowledging the surgical strike
will be a huge moral blow to Pakistani nation as a whole that diminishes the izzat of Pakistani Army which is highly worshipped
and respected. Once it sinks it, there will be a tremendous impact on the psyche
of the Pak Army generals and the masses as a whole – that they cannot allow
which will shatter the myth that Pak Army is sacrosanct and is now vulnerable.
I can well imagine, the shock and
chatter that must have followed after the surgical strikes, amongst Pakistani
Terror CEOs Forum; that none of them have so far openly challenged India or
promised further strikes. That’s odd, unless one is hit where it hurts the
most.
6. Taking advantage of Baloch issue
Mr. Modi has openly urged
Balochs, Pashtuns and other groups to ask their local government as to why
Pakistan exports terror while India exports Software to the world after 70 years of independence? It will not
be improbable to imagine that India fully supports the cause of Baluchistan and
other oppressed groups like Pashtuns in Pakistan and will also prefer to go for
covert offensive, best held and discussed behind closed doors – with enough
plausible deniability in place. It is India’s interest that these issues are
fully explored and deftly manipulated so that we have enough aces up our
sleeves to deal with this menace emanating from Pakistani non-state actors. Granting
asylum to Brahumdugh Bugti would be a good start. If Pakistan can shelter
Dawood, we can very well support the genuine cause of Baluch repressions.
There are some analysts who also
believe that future of Pakistan’s integrity is bleak. There might a good
possibility that the country might break into fractions and republics, if
Pakistani Army is weakened. It will be a menace for the world and especially,
India and Afghanistan, which has to bear the brunt as it will be playground for
different terrorist factions, running amok unless checked. But I have full
trust in our NSA Mr. Doval who am sure will look at it from a long term
perspective, that works out best; even if it means that geographies and
boundaries needs to be altered. There can be a very well thought out plan that is already in action without our knowledge... that is what covert action is supposed to be.
In this complex situation,
ownership and safeguard of Pakistani Nuclear Weapons should be kept in mind
ensuring that it does not fall into Jihadi hands – that already has an eye on
it, in the event of Pakistan collapsing as a state and Pak Army not in a
position of control.
7. Indian Covert and Operational Readiness needs to be re-looked
Some news commentators of Indian
Media channels, high on jingoism, have baffled me by comparing this surgical
strike with the one conducted by US Navy Seals in Abbottabad to capture and
kill Osama bin Laden. I was not sure whether to laugh or cry at the suggestion –
simply because there are no similarities in the nature and scale. Both were
covert actions no doubt – but it ended there. Do not doubt my patriotism and respect
for the Indian Army; but some Indian news channels stretched it a bit far. If
we conduct a similar operation to nab Dawood Ibrahim from his Lahore or Karachi
hide-out and present him to the world, well it will be worthy of the comparison
to the Abbottabad Mission.
Though Indian Special Forces were
involved, various experts do believe that India hardly possesses capabilities
to conduct offensive covert capabilities during peace-time like British SAS or
German GSG-9. Our Special Forces are more trained for war-time conflicts in the
methodologies and techniques. But this does not undermine in anyway the professionalism
and the bravery of our soldiers! Only NSG comes close, in dealing with such
operations – but again its more of a reactionary force rather than a
pre-emptive force. Only a small section of Frontier Force that RAW operates is
capable of performing such damage and carry out sabotage behind enemy lines on
terrorist infrastructure to an extent. India should acknowledge this fact and
strengthen its doctrine to plug this operational gap.
Conclusion:
In the end, it is may not remain
a “Zero Sum Game” as many pundits claim; status quo will be maintained, atleast
at this stage. But it is possible that politically, Pakistan may again go under an
Authoritarian / army rule if the Pak civilian government tries to normalise ties
with India, witnessing a coup. It will be a huge win for Narendra Modi led
Indian government as it administers a dose of Pakistan’s own medicine on
Pakistan.
There will be economic impact,
one which has already impacted Sensex in India – tanking by 500 points in a
single day. Pakistan has little to lose in this regard.
But this one single strike has a
huge implication. Pakistan had dared India to carry out surgical strikes within
Pakistan after Myanmar operation and face the wrath of the mighty Pakistani Army. 72 hours have passed, yet to face that wrath. Wrath doesn’t happen in cold blood or when one is at the losing end. Mr.
Modi’s single largest legacy may not be his dramatic economic policies; but his
diplomatic and foreign policy in dealing with Pakistan and creating a range of
options previously unexplored due to lack of political will / courage.
I would like to end this post
with the following video. More post in this series to follow soon.
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